Intuition = Experience × Risk
Why Risk Is the Multiplier
Intuition isn't magic.
It's not a personality trait.
It's not a gift you either have or don't.
Intuition is earned.
And the cleanest way I know to explain it is this:
Intuition = Experience × Risk
Experience is everywhere.
Risk is what most leaders avoid, see it as a downside to protect.
Which is why intuition is rarer than it should be.
Because risk is the multiplier.
Without risk, experience stays flat.
With calibrated risk, experience compounds into discernment.
Risk Is The Multiplier.
Intuition = Experience × Risk. Risk is the multiplier.
What Intuition Actually Looks Like In Real Leadership
Intuition is what shows up when:
the numbers look fine, but something in the room is off
the strategy deck is airtight, but the execution energy is missing
everyone sounds aligned, but you can feel the fracture line
a candidate performs well, but you can see the future conflict forming
a decision window is closing and the team is still asking for "one more analysis"
Most leaders sense these moments.
But sensing isn't enough.
The question is: do you have the earned discernment to trust what you're sensing?
That's where the equation matters.
1) Experience (the base)
Experience is what you've lived.
It's reps.
It's pattern recognition.
It's a body of evidence you carry into rooms that look "new" but aren't actually new.
Experience is why a seasoned leader can walk into a meeting and know quickly whether the team is coherent.
But here's the trap:
Experience alone doesn't guarantee discernment.
Because experience can become repetition.
You've seen it:
"twenty years of experience" that is actually the same year repeated twenty times
teams who keep running the same playbook because it used to work
leaders who are smart, capable, and... stuck
Experience is necessary.
But it isn't sufficient.
2) Risk (the multiplier)
Risk is what turns experience into intuition.
Because risk creates stakes.
Stakes create attention.
Attention creates learning.
Learning creates better judgment.
Judgment becomes discernment.
And discernment is what people are really buying when they hire a leader.
Risk doesn't mean recklessness.
Risk means calibrated exposure.
A decision you can't fully prove yet.
A conversation you'd rather avoid.
A talent move that forces clarity.
A strategic bet that creates real feedback.
Risk is what forces experience to update.
Without risk, experience stays the same.
With risk, experience learns.
A Simple Calibration Tool
Here's how I help leaders calibrate risk:
What's the base case if we do nothing for 90 days?
What's the upside case if we move now?
What's the smallest smart risk that buys real information quickly?
That third question is the key.
Because small, smart risks build intuition faster than big dramatic swings.
The Closing Truth
Where are you asking for "more data" when what you actually need is a small, smart risk that creates learning?
Because the next level of leadership isn't more information.
It's more discernment.
And discernment is built one calibrated risk at a time.
Listen
Prefer audio? This episode expands on the Intuition equation and what makes leaders valuable in an AI world.
Listen on Apple Podcasts
Ready to Turn Hesitation Into Clear Action?
Let's explore how the Purpose Value Creation Plan™ can help you and your leadership team navigate high-stakes decisions with confidence.
